Geopolitics
Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
5% say National Party wins
Prices last updated 2 hours ago. They normally update every minute.
Down 41 points today.
Decided by the election on November 7, 2026, using official election authority.
Results can take until October 31, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).
Possible results
Labour PartyLabour Party wins the election.96%
What has to happen
Labour Party wins, under the rules.
National PartyNational Party wins the election.5%
What has to happen
National Party wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
- If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
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