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Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

<1% say Miguel Díaz-Canel will be the next leader out before 2027

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu wins.14%

    What has to happen

    Benjamin Netanyahu wins, under the rules.

  • Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez wins.8%

    What has to happen

    Pedro Sánchez wins, under the rules.

  • Sébastien LecornuSébastien Lecornu wins.4%

    What has to happen

    Sébastien Lecornu wins, under the rules.

  • Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy wins.1%

    What has to happen

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins, under the rules.

Show 17 more results
  • Mahmoud AbbasMahmoud Abbas wins.1%

    What has to happen

    Mahmoud Abbas wins, under the rules.

  • Miguel Díaz-CanelMiguel Díaz-Canel wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Miguel Díaz-Canel wins, under the rules.

  • Xi JinpingXi Jinping wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Xi Jinping wins, under the rules.

  • Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Friedrich Merz wins, under the rules.

  • Donald TrumpDonald Trump wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Donald Trump wins, under the rules.

  • Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Vladimir Putin wins, under the rules.

  • Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, under the rules.

  • Delcy RodríguezDelcy Rodríguez wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Delcy Rodríguez wins, under the rules.

  • Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Emmanuel Macron wins, under the rules.

  • Kim Jong UnKim Jong Un wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Kim Jong Un wins, under the rules.

  • Sanae TakaichiSanae Takaichi wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Sanae Takaichi wins, under the rules.

  • Recep Tayyip ErdoğanRecep Tayyip Erdoğan wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins, under the rules.

  • Claudia SheinbaumClaudia Sheinbaum wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Claudia Sheinbaum wins, under the rules.

  • Ahmed al-SharaaAhmed al-Sharaa wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ahmed al-Sharaa wins, under the rules.

  • Anthony AlbaneseAnthony Albanese wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Anthony Albanese wins, under the rules.

  • Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Gavin Newsom wins, under the rules.

  • Javier MileiJavier Milei wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Javier Milei wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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