Tech
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
56% say Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026
No price change recorded today yet.
Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by December 31, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 56¢ means about a 56% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
This market asks: will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Possible results
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.56%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.34%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.6%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.2%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026This result happens.<1%
What has to happen
The question’s answer is yes.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
Why the price is where it is
We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.
The one trap
If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
See all fine print
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).