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Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by on October 31?

95% say Microsoft will be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31

Up 43 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by October 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 95¢ means about a 95% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • MicrosoftMicrosoft wins.95%

    What has to happen

    Microsoft wins, under the rules.

  • AlphabetAlphabet wins.3%

    What has to happen

    Alphabet wins, under the rules.

  • NVIDIANVIDIA wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    NVIDIA wins, under the rules.

  • AppleApple wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Apple wins, under the rules.

Show 5 more results
  • TeslaTesla wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tesla wins, under the rules.

  • Saudi AramcoSaudi Aramco wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Saudi Aramco wins, under the rules.

  • AmazonAmazon wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Amazon wins, under the rules.

  • BroadcomBroadcom wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Broadcom wins, under the rules.

  • SpaceXSpaceX wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    SpaceX wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: only the close countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (45/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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