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US Elections

Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?

8% say Mary Peltola wins

Prices last updated 5 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 8¢ means about an 8% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Mary PeltolaMary Peltola wins.8%

    What has to happen

    Mary Peltola wins, under the rules.

  • Dan S. SullivanDan S. Sullivan wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dan S. Sullivan wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
  • If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final reported round of the specified election.”
  • “If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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