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Geopolitics

Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

<1% say Marco Rubio will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Nicolás MaduroNicolás Maduro wins.94%

    What has to happen

    Nicolás Maduro wins, under the rules.

  • Delcy RodríguezDelcy Rodríguez wins.7%

    What has to happen

    Delcy Rodríguez wins, under the rules.

  • María Corina MachadoMaría Corina Machado wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    María Corina Machado wins, under the rules.

  • Edmundo GonzálezEdmundo González wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Edmundo González wins, under the rules.

Show 11 more results
  • Marco RubioMarco Rubio wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Marco Rubio wins, under the rules.

  • Jorge RodríguezJorge Rodríguez wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jorge Rodríguez wins, under the rules.

  • Pete HegsethPete Hegseth wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Pete Hegseth wins, under the rules.

  • Diosdado Cabello RondónDiosdado Cabello Rondón wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Diosdado Cabello Rondón wins, under the rules.

  • Dinorah FigueraDinorah Figuera wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dinorah Figuera wins, under the rules.

  • Donald TrumpDonald Trump wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Donald Trump wins, under the rules.

  • Vladimir Padrino LópezVladimir Padrino López wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Vladimir Padrino López wins, under the rules.

  • Evan PettusEvan Pettus wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Evan Pettus wins, under the rules.

  • Frank DonovanFrank Donovan wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Frank Donovan wins, under the rules.

  • Dan CaineDan Caine wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dan Caine wins, under the rules.

  • Richard GrenellRichard Grenell wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Richard Grenell wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

The official result comes from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.

See all fine print
  • If no distinction is made, the market settles as the individual who first assumed the position.
  • If no individual holds the position the market settles as “No Head of State”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the date it takes effect
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.”
  • “The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective…”
  • “For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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