Geopolitics

Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

23% say Luka Mesec wins

Down 18 points today.

Decided by the election on November 15, 2026, using major news reports.

Results can take until May 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 23¢ means about a 23% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (4 in all).

Possible results

Zoran JankovićZoran Janković wins the election.73%
What has to happen
Zoran Janković wins, under the rules.
Luka MesecLuka Mesec wins the election.23%
What has to happen
Luka Mesec wins, under the rules.
Aleksandar RepićAleksandar Repić wins the election.2%
What has to happen
Aleksandar Repić wins, under the rules.
Anton RopAnton Rop wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Anton Rop wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 23%No 77%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by Election Commission (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Election Commission (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election.”
“If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”
“If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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