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Geopolitics

Will Likud win the second-most in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

7% say Likud wins

Down 62 points today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 7¢ means about a 7% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (14 in all).

Possible results

  • YasharYashar wins the election.93%

    What has to happen

    Yashar wins, under the rules.

  • LikudLikud wins the election.7%

    What has to happen

    Likud wins, under the rules.

  • TogetherTogether wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Together wins, under the rules.

  • ShasShas wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Shas wins, under the rules.

Show 10 more results
  • DemocratsDemocrats wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Democrats wins, under the rules.

  • Otzma YehuditOtzma Yehudit wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Otzma Yehudit wins, under the rules.

  • Yisrael BeiteinuYisrael Beiteinu wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yisrael Beiteinu wins, under the rules.

  • United Torah JudaismUnited Torah Judaism wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    United Torah Judaism wins, under the rules.

  • RZP-ZehutRZP-Zehut wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    RZP-Zehut wins, under the rules.

  • Joint ListJoint List wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Joint List wins, under the rules.

  • Ra'amRa'am wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ra'am wins, under the rules.

  • Amcha YisraelAmcha Yisrael wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Amcha Yisrael wins, under the rules.

  • NoamNoam wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Noam wins, under the rules.

  • Reservists and the Economic PartyReservists and the Economic Party wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Reservists and the Economic Party wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 7.5¢ to 11¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)22m ago

  • The price fell 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 14¢ to 8¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)52m ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

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Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: explained simply · MarketWeaver