US Elections

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

Closed, awaiting result

To be decided by consensus of credible reporting

Trading has stopped. No result has been posted yet.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (3 in all).

Possible results

Su Chiao-huiSu Chiao-hui wins the election.No result yet
What has to happen
Su Chiao-hui wins, under the rules.
Lee Shu-chuanLee Shu-chuan wins the election.No result yet
What has to happen
Lee Shu-chuan wins, under the rules.
Huang Kuo-changHuang Kuo-chang wins the election.No result yet
What has to happen
Huang Kuo-chang wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market settles as “Other”.

See all fine print

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission.
Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.”
“If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.