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Geopolitics

Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

96% say yes

Prices last updated 76 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.

Up 18 points today.

Decided by the election on November 7, 2026, using official election authority.

Results can take until October 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 96¢ means about a 96% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

Possible results

  • Yes96%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.4%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
  • If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by Electoral Commission
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Electoral Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Electoral Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.”
  • “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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