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Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
<1% say yes
Down 12 points today.
Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%
What has to happen
The next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
If the leaderboard's URL, tab names, or control labels change, the equivalent default Text Overall view with style control disabled and no filters applied on arena.ai constitutes the same resolution source; such changes do not make the source unavailable.
See all fine print
- If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's rank becomes available on the leaderboard.
Price chart
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