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Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Jun 2, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Karen Bass winning the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election at about 46%.

It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: observed event, time zone not statedNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Jun 2, 2026 (election day) Deadline: Tue, Jun 2, 2026 (election day) (time zone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Jun 2, 2026 (election day) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…6. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver