US Elections

Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

93% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 93¢ means about a 93% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.93%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.7%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports, by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes 93%No 7%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Jan 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the…”
“If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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