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US Elections

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

18% say JD Vance wins

Down 1 point today.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 18¢ means about an 18% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (54 in all).

Possible results

  • JD VanceJD Vance wins the election.18%

    What has to happen

    JD Vance wins, under the rules.

  • Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the election.13%

    What has to happen

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins, under the rules.

  • Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom wins the election.12%

    What has to happen

    Gavin Newsom wins, under the rules.

  • Marco RubioMarco Rubio wins the election.10%

    What has to happen

    Marco Rubio wins, under the rules.

Show 50 more results
  • Jon OssoffJon Ossoff wins the election.9%

    What has to happen

    Jon Ossoff wins, under the rules.

  • Kamala HarrisKamala Harris wins the election.4%

    What has to happen

    Kamala Harris wins, under the rules.

  • Josh ShapiroJosh Shapiro wins the election.3%

    What has to happen

    Josh Shapiro wins, under the rules.

  • Ron DeSantisRon DeSantis wins the election.3%

    What has to happen

    Ron DeSantis wins, under the rules.

  • Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg wins the election.3%

    What has to happen

    Pete Buttigieg wins, under the rules.

  • Andy BeshearAndy Beshear wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Andy Beshear wins, under the rules.

  • James TalaricoJames Talarico wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    James Talarico wins, under the rules.

  • Donald TrumpDonald Trump wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Donald Trump wins, under the rules.

  • Dwayne 'The Rock' JohnsonDwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins, under the rules.

  • Tucker CarlsonTucker Carlson wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Tucker Carlson wins, under the rules.

  • Mark KellyMark Kelly wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Mark Kelly wins, under the rules.

  • Wes MooreWes Moore wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Wes Moore wins, under the rules.

  • Thomas MassieThomas Massie wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Thomas Massie wins, under the rules.

  • Raphael WarnockRaphael Warnock wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Raphael Warnock wins, under the rules.

  • Ro KhannaRo Khanna wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ro Khanna wins, under the rules.

  • JB PritzkerJB Pritzker wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    JB Pritzker wins, under the rules.

  • Ivanka TrumpIvanka Trump wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ivanka Trump wins, under the rules.

  • Donald Trump Jr.Donald Trump Jr. wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Donald Trump Jr. wins, under the rules.

  • Ted CruzTed Cruz wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ted Cruz wins, under the rules.

  • Rahm EmanuelRahm Emanuel wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Rahm Emanuel wins, under the rules.

  • Gretchen WhitmerGretchen Whitmer wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Gretchen Whitmer wins, under the rules.

  • Michelle ObamaMichelle Obama wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Michelle Obama wins, under the rules.

  • Jamie DimonJamie Dimon wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jamie Dimon wins, under the rules.

  • Glenn YoungkinGlenn Youngkin wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Glenn Youngkin wins, under the rules.

  • Tulsi GabbardTulsi Gabbard wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tulsi Gabbard wins, under the rules.

  • Greg AbbottGreg Abbott wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Greg Abbott wins, under the rules.

  • Elon MuskElon Musk wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Elon Musk wins, under the rules.

  • Stephen SmithStephen Smith wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Stephen Smith wins, under the rules.

  • Nikki HaleyNikki Haley wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Nikki Haley wins, under the rules.

  • Tim WalzTim Walz wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tim Walz wins, under the rules.

  • Vivek RamaswamyVivek Ramaswamy wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Vivek Ramaswamy wins, under the rules.

  • LeBron JamesLeBron James wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    LeBron James wins, under the rules.

  • Kim KardashianKim Kardashian wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Kim Kardashian wins, under the rules.

  • Zohran MamdaniZohran Mamdani wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Zohran Mamdani wins, under the rules.

  • Eric TrumpEric Trump wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Eric Trump wins, under the rules.

  • Pete HegsethPete Hegseth wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Pete Hegseth wins, under the rules.

  • Jalen BrunsonJalen Brunson wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Jalen Brunson wins, under the rules.

  • Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Spanberger wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Abigail Spanberger wins, under the rules.

  • Hakeem JeffriesHakeem Jeffries wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Hakeem Jeffries wins, under the rules.

  • Elissa SlotkinElissa Slotkin wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Elissa Slotkin wins, under the rules.

  • Adam SchiffAdam Schiff wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Adam Schiff wins, under the rules.

  • Josh SteinJosh Stein wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Josh Stein wins, under the rules.

  • Alex PadillaAlex Padilla wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Alex Padilla wins, under the rules.

  • Candace OwensCandace Owens wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Candace Owens wins, under the rules.

  • Tim ScottTim Scott wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tim Scott wins, under the rules.

  • Mike JohnsonMike Johnson wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Mike Johnson wins, under the rules.

  • Doug BurgumDoug Burgum wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Doug Burgum wins, under the rules.

  • Tom CottonTom Cotton wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tom Cotton wins, under the rules.

  • John N. KennedyJohn N. Kennedy wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    John N. Kennedy wins, under the rules.

  • Rick ScottRick Scott wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Rick Scott wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree). Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 7, 2028 (election day) (time zone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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