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GDP & Tariffs

Will Japan Q3 growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

23% say yes

Down 7 points today.

Decided by esri.cao.go.jp, by November 16, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 23¢ means about a 23% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by the official report.

Possible results

  • YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.23%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 16, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.77%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

It uses the first number the government publishes, not later updates.

See all fine print
  • If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
  • Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by esri.cao.go.jp
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the first published number

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: esri.cao.go.jp. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Mon, Nov 16, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: esri.cao.go.jp (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in…”
  • “If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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