Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: will James Comey be arrested before 2027?

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No.

2.Words to know

End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Token: A digital asset that lives on a blockchain, such as a cryptocurrency coin.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.
Ceasefire: An agreement to stop fighting, for a while or for good.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.

3.Each possible result

Will James Comey be arrested before 2027Crowd’s chance: about 19%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027Crowd’s chance: about 4%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 19¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 19% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of James Comey being arrested before 2027 at about 19%.

It rose 13 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 30

Who settles it (official source)

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Deadline and time zone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET."

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settled by UMA token-holder vote.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.