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Geopolitics

Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?

69% say yes

Up 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 69¢ means about a 69% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.69%

    What has to happen

    Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.31%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 74.5¢ to 67.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus47m ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 70.5¢ to 74¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 67¢ to 70.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 72.5¢ to 68.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus4h ago

  • The price fell 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 84.5¢ to 79.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus18h ago

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 83¢ to 79¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus18h ago

  • The price fell 8.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 86¢ to 77.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus19h ago

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 89¢ to 85¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus20h ago

  • The price rose 28.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 62¢ to 90.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus21h ago

  • The price rose 14.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 41¢ to 55.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus22h ago

  • The price fell 16.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 50¢ to 33.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus23h ago

  • The price fell 23.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 65.5¢ to 42¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus23h ago

  • The price rose 41.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 24.5¢ to 66¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus24h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.

    20h ago

  • Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.

    1d ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time…”
  • “If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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