CPI & Inflation

Will reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

14% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by BLS news release, by January 31, 2027.

Polymarket lists December 31, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until January 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 14¢ means about a 14% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by cPI release. Yes wins if: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports.

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.14%
What has to happen
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports.
NoIt doesn’t happen.86%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.

Price chart

Yes 14%No 86%

-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the first published number

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date.

Next official event: CPI release, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (U.S. CPI / How high will inflation get in 2026, slug will-inflation-reach-more-than-4pt5-in-2026): Annual threshold markets resolve Yes if headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases by strictly greater than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026 per the monthly BLS CPI news release (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), reported to one decimal place (for example, 2.9%). Monthly Polymarket CPI bracket markets key off the seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) or unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) first print as specified in the bracket title. Later revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count once the report is issued.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXCPI / KXCPIYOY CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. KXCPIYOY settles on the initial published 12-month percent change in Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) to one decimal place. Strikes use "strictly greater than" thresholds, meaning a print of exactly 3.0% settles NO on a "> 3.0%" strike. Subsequent BLS revisions or seasonal-factor recalculations are excluded.

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