US Elections

Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?

>99% say Iliana Iotova wins

Up 82 points today.

Decided by the election on November 1, 2026, using official election authority.

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

Iliana IotovaIliana Iotova wins the election.>99%
What has to happen
Iliana Iotova wins, under the rules.
Andrey GyurovAndrey Gyurov wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Andrey Gyurov wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by Election Commission

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Bulgaria Presidential Election.”
“If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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