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US Elections

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

93% say Hakeem Jeffries will be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 93¢ means about a 93% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Hakeem JeffriesHakeem Jeffries wins.93%

    What has to happen

    Hakeem Jeffries wins, under the rules.

  • Katherine ClarkKatherine Clark wins.4%

    What has to happen

    Katherine Clark wins, under the rules.

  • Pete AguilarPete Aguilar wins.3%

    What has to happen

    Pete Aguilar wins, under the rules.

  • Jim JordanJim Jordan wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Jim Jordan wins, under the rules.

Show 2 more results
  • Steve ScaliseSteve Scalise wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Steve Scalise wins, under the rules.

  • Mike JohnsonMike Johnson wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Mike Johnson wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

No checked news summary for this market right now. Check the official source: major news reports, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (40/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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