Chess

Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

24% say Gukesh Dommaraju wins

Down 1 point today.

Decided when a champion is named, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 24¢ means about a 24% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

It stays open until the season or tournament has a winner.

Possible results

Javokhir SindarovJavokhir Sindarov wins.77%
What has to happen
Javokhir Sindarov wins, under the rules.
Gukesh DommarajuGukesh Dommaraju wins.24%
What has to happen
Gukesh Dommaraju wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes 24%No 76%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
“If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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