US Elections
Will Green Party win the third-most in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
99% say Green Party wins
Up 5 points today.
Decided by the election on November 7, 2026, using major news reports.
Results can take until October 31, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (6 in all).
Possible results
Green PartyGreen Party wins the election.99%
What has to happen
Green Party wins, under the rules.
ACT New ZealandACT New Zealand wins the election.1%
What has to happen
ACT New Zealand wins, under the rules.
New Zealand First PartyNew Zealand First Party wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
New Zealand First Party wins, under the rules.
National PartyNational Party wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
National Party wins, under the rules.
Show 2 more results
Labour PartyLabour Party wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Labour Party wins, under the rules.
Te Pāti MāoriTe Pāti Māori wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Te Pāti Māori wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
What the news says
The source says Stephen Miller previously served as the deputy chief of staff.
Sources checked 7:52 AM ET
See sources (1)
News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.
The one trap
Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.
See all fine print
- Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
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