Commodities

Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?

6% say yes

Down 10 points today.

Decided by December 31, 2026, under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 6¢ means about a 6% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.6%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.94%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.

See all fine print

If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.

Price chart

Yes 6%No 94%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Wed, Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC)…”
“The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.”
“Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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