MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Geopolitics

Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

<1% say Gilad Erdan wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (19 in all).

Possible results

  • Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu wins the election.56%

    What has to happen

    Benjamin Netanyahu wins, under the rules.

  • Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot wins the election.21%

    What has to happen

    Gadi Eizenkot wins, under the rules.

  • Naftali BennettNaftali Bennett wins the election.6%

    What has to happen

    Naftali Bennett wins, under the rules.

  • Avigdor LiebermanAvigdor Lieberman wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Avigdor Lieberman wins, under the rules.

Show 15 more results
  • Israel KatzIsrael Katz wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Israel Katz wins, under the rules.

  • Amir OhanaAmir Ohana wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Amir Ohana wins, under the rules.

  • Yariv LevinYariv Levin wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yariv Levin wins, under the rules.

  • Benny GantzBenny Gantz wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Benny Gantz wins, under the rules.

  • Gideon Sa’arGideon Sa’ar wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Gideon Sa’ar wins, under the rules.

  • Yoaz HendelYoaz Hendel wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yoaz Hendel wins, under the rules.

  • Gilad ErdanGilad Erdan wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Gilad Erdan wins, under the rules.

  • Yair LapidYair Lapid wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yair Lapid wins, under the rules.

  • Yossi CohenYossi Cohen wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yossi Cohen wins, under the rules.

  • Yair GolanYair Golan wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Yair Golan wins, under the rules.

  • Itamar Ben GvirItamar Ben Gvir wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Itamar Ben Gvir wins, under the rules.

  • Moshe FeiglinMoshe Feiglin wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Moshe Feiglin wins, under the rules.

  • Ayelet ShakedAyelet Shaked wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ayelet Shaked wins, under the rules.

  • Nir BarkatNir Barkat wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Nir Barkat wins, under the rules.

  • Ofer WinterOfer Winter wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ofer Winter wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Big trades across all markets