Tech

Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?

74% say yes

Up 21 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 74¢ means about a 74% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.74%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.26%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 74%No 26%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 75.5¢ to 78.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago
The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 72¢ to 77¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the…”
“A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update…”
“The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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