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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak) · End date Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election at less than 1%.

It fell 80 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous · https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the S…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver