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Geopolitics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?

98% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 98¢ means about a 98% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (March 31, 2027), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.98%

    What has to happen

    Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.2%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by March 31, 2027.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 12.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 85.5¢ to 98.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus21m ago

  • The price rose 8.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 79¢ to 87¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 10.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 88.5¢ to 78.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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