Geopolitics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?

81% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 81¢ means about an 81% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.81%
What has to happen
Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.19%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 81%No 19%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 11.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 90.5¢ to 79¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus6m ago
The price rose 30 points in about 15 minutes, from 41¢ to 71¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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