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Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

45% say yes

Up 10 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 45¢ means about a 45% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.45%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027.
NoIt doesn’t happen.55%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 45%No 55%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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