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Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of November 2026?

27% say yes

Up 14 points today.

Decided by reuters.com, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 27¢ means about a 27% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.27%

    What has to happen

    Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of November 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.73%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues.

See all fine print
  • In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 17.7¢ to 21.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: reuters.com6h ago

  • The price fell 11.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 29.1¢ to 17.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: reuters.com6h ago

  • The price rose 18.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 26¢ to 44.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: reuters.com8h ago

  • The price rose 6.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.2¢ to 28.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: reuters.com8h ago

  • The price fell 3.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 28.9¢ to 25¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: reuters.com11h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by reuters.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: reuters.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: reuters.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and…”
  • “The primary resolution source for this market will be Eurostat, specifically the nrg_stk_oilm dataset at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table.”
  • “If Eurostat becomes permanently unavailable or has not published a qualifying figure for November 2026 by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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