US Elections
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
<1% say Dustin Darden wins
Prices last updated 5 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.
No price change recorded today yet.
Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Results can take until July 31, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
There is one market for each possible winner (7 in all).
Possible results
Mary PeltolaMary Peltola wins the election.74%
What has to happen
Mary Peltola wins, under the rules.
Dan SullivanDan Sullivan wins the election.27%
What has to happen
Dan Sullivan wins, under the rules.
Ann DienerAnn Diener wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Ann Diener wins, under the rules.
Dustin DardenDustin Darden wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Dustin Darden wins, under the rules.
Show 3 more results
Richard GraysonRichard Grayson wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Richard Grayson wins, under the rules.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins, under the rules.
David LeslieDavid Leslie wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
David Leslie wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
What the news says
The legal dispute involves a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. appearing on the ballot alongside the incumbent senator.
Sources checked 8:23 AM ET
See sources (1)
News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market settles as "Other".
Price chart
Loading...
View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)