US Elections

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

65% say yes

Down 7 points today.

Decided by Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 65¢ means about a 65% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: A candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.65%
What has to happen
A candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S.
NoIt doesn’t happen.35%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says Congresswoman Debbie Dingell described the endorsement as a distraction from the issues voters face at the polls.

Sources checked 12:01 AM ET

See sources (1)

PBS · Nov 2
Surprise endorsement in Michigan Senate race a 'huge distraction,' says Rep. Dingell

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 65%No 35%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina…”
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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