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Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Democratic House incumbents not winning in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle at more than 99%.

It rose 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: observed event, time zone not statedSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day) Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day) (time zone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…ing to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general electio…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver