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US Elections

Will David Lisnard to the second round of the next French presidential election?

20% say yes

Up 4 points today.

Polymarket lists April 18, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 20¢ means about a 20% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: The listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.20%

    What has to happen

    The listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.80%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by April 18, 2027.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Ministry of the Interior.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (interieur.gouv.fr) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: explained simply · MarketWeaver