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Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

17% say CXMT will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 17¢ means about a 17% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • CATLCATL wins.22%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • AlibabaAlibaba wins.18%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • HesaiHesai wins.18%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • UnitreeUnitree wins.18%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

Show 6 more results
  • CXMTCXMT wins.17%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • BYDBYD wins.17%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • BaiduBaidu wins.15%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • TencentTencent wins.14%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • YMTCYMTC wins.13%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

  • DJIDJI wins.11%

    What has to happen

    The specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.

See all fine print
  • If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

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