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Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

3% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by claymath.org, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%
What has to happen
The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by claymath.org

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on claymath.org (claymath.org); credible reporting may also be used. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: claymath.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize…”
“The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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