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US Elections

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

83% say Chuck Schumer will be the next Senate Majority Leader

Down 4 points today.

Decided by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

The Senate result can take until Jun 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 83¢ means about an 83% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Chuck SchumerChuck Schumer wins.83%

    What has to happen

    Chuck Schumer wins, under the rules.

  • Chris Van HollenChris Van Hollen wins.7%

    What has to happen

    Chris Van Hollen wins, under the rules.

  • Brian SchatzBrian Schatz wins.5%

    What has to happen

    Brian Schatz wins, under the rules.

  • John BarrassoJohn Barrasso wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    John Barrasso wins, under the rules.

Show 7 more results
  • Tom CottonTom Cotton wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Tom Cotton wins, under the rules.

  • Patty MurrayPatty Murray wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Patty Murray wins, under the rules.

  • Cory BookerCory Booker wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Cory Booker wins, under the rules.

  • John ThuneJohn Thune wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    John Thune wins, under the rules.

  • Mark KellyMark Kelly wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Mark Kelly wins, under the rules.

  • Steve DainesSteve Daines wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Steve Daines wins, under the rules.

  • Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Amy Klobuchar wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S.
  • If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo source named
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.”
  • “If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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