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US Elections

Will Chiu Yi-ying win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?

Closed, awaiting result

To be decided by consensus of credible reporting

Trading has stopped. No result has been posted yet.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (6 in all).

Possible results

  • Lai Jui-lungLai Jui-lung wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Lai Jui-lung wins, under the rules.

  • Ko Chih-enKo Chih-en wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Ko Chih-en wins, under the rules.

  • Lin Tai-huaLin Tai-hua wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Lin Tai-hua wins, under the rules.

  • Chiu Yi-yingChiu Yi-ying wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Chiu Yi-ying wins, under the rules.

Show 2 more results
  • Hsu Chih-chiehHsu Chih-chieh wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Hsu Chih-chieh wins, under the rules.

  • Chang ChingChang Ching wins the election.No result yet

    What has to happen

    Chang Ching wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market settles as “Other”.

See all fine print
  • Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission.
  • Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election.”
  • “If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will Chiu Yi-ying win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?: explained simply · MarketWeaver