GDP & Tariffs

Will China’s 2026 annual growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?

<1% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by official government website, by January 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by the official report.

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by January 31, 2027.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

It uses the first number the government publishes, not later updates.

See all fine print

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026.
If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by stats.gov.cn

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: settlement runs on Official government website (stats.gov.cn). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Sat, Jan 30, 2027, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: stats.gov.cn (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the…”
“If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.