Geopolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

3% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%
What has to happen
China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan)…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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