MarketWeaver
?Log inSign up

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Named source: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) · End date Nov 28, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Chiang Wan-an winning the next Taipei Mayor election at about 65%.

It dipped 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Deadline: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with db.cec.gov.tw deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous · https://db.cec.gov.tw/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the C…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with db.cec.gov.tw deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver