Geopolitics
Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
<1% say Carlos Cuerpo wins
No price change recorded today yet.
Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
There is one market for each possible winner (20 in all).
Possible results
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo wins the election.89%
What has to happen
Alberto Núñez Feijóo wins, under the rules.
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez wins the election.10%
What has to happen
Pedro Sánchez wins, under the rules.
Santiago AbascalSantiago Abascal wins the election.1%
What has to happen
Santiago Abascal wins, under the rules.
Isabel Díaz AyusoIsabel Díaz Ayuso wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Isabel Díaz Ayuso wins, under the rules.
Show 16 more results
Carlos CuerpoCarlos Cuerpo wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Carlos Cuerpo wins, under the rules.
María Jesús MonteroMaría Jesús Montero wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
María Jesús Montero wins, under the rules.
Yolanda DíazYolanda Díaz wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Yolanda Díaz wins, under the rules.
Ernest UrtasunErnest Urtasun wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Ernest Urtasun wins, under the rules.
Aitor EstebanAitor Esteban wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Aitor Esteban wins, under the rules.
Miguel TelladoMiguel Tellado wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Miguel Tellado wins, under the rules.
Ester MuñozEster Muñoz wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Ester Muñoz wins, under the rules.
Pepa MillánPepa Millán wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Pepa Millán wins, under the rules.
Cuca GamarraCuca Gamarra wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Cuca Gamarra wins, under the rules.
Borja SémperBorja Sémper wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Borja Sémper wins, under the rules.
Carles PuigdemontCarles Puigdemont wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Carles Puigdemont wins, under the rules.
Óscar PuenteÓscar Puente wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Óscar Puente wins, under the rules.
Juanma MorenoJuanma Moreno wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Juanma Moreno wins, under the rules.
Félix BolañosFélix Bolaños wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Félix Bolaños wins, under the rules.
Emiliano García-PageEmiliano García-Page wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Emiliano García-Page wins, under the rules.
Salvador IllaSalvador Illa wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Salvador Illa wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
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