US Elections

Will Candidate G win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

No live price for this market yet.

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

Results can take until July 31, 2027.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe person named in the question wins the election.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.No price
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The legal dispute involves a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. appearing on the ballot alongside the incumbent senator.

Sources checked 8:23 AM ET

See sources (1)

PBS · Oct 31
Attorneys for Alaska say 'meritless' Trump demand to set aside Senate ballots 'not even possible'

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market settles as "Other".

Price chart

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: race calls after election daySettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. Results can take until Jul 31, 2027.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3…”
“If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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