Geopolitics

Will Candidate F be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

49% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Results can take until June 30, 2029.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 49¢ means about a 49% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Yes49%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by September 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.51%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.

Price chart

Yes 49%No 51%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Sep 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…”
“Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.”
“If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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