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US Elections

Will Candidate C win the CA-07 House seat?

50% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by major news reports, by November 3, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 50¢ means about a 50% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.50%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.50%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

The source says the Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court on November 2 to sideline 20,000 disputed California mail ballots. Chief Judge James Boasberg ordered the administration to stop its demands, ruling they violated the Constitution's Elections Clause.

Sources checked 1:31 AM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Election Commission (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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