US Elections

Will Candidate A win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?

Settled: Lula

Decided by consensus of credible reporting

Result posted: Mon Oct 26, 1:00 AM ET

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Mon Oct 26, 12:59 AM ET

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (8 in all).

Possible results

LulaLula wins the election.Yes
What has to happen
Lula wins, under the rules.
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro wins the election.No
What has to happen
Flavio Bolsonaro wins, under the rules.
Candidate ACandidate A wins the election.No
What has to happen
Candidate A wins, under the rules.
Candidate BCandidate B wins the election.No
What has to happen
Candidate B wins, under the rules.

Show 4 more results

Candidate CCandidate C wins the election.No
What has to happen
Candidate C wins, under the rules.
Candidate DCandidate D wins the election.No
What has to happen
Candidate D wins, under the rules.
Candidate ECandidate E wins the election.No
What has to happen
Candidate E wins, under the rules.
someone elsesomeone else wins the election.No
What has to happen
someone else wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Superior Electoral Court.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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