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Geopolitics

Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

6% say Jim Chalmers wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Results can take until June 30, 2029.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 6¢ means about a 6% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (6 in all).

Possible results

  • Anthony AlbaneseAnthony Albanese wins the election.45%

    What has to happen

    Anthony Albanese wins, under the rules.

  • Pauline HansonPauline Hanson wins the election.23%

    What has to happen

    Pauline Hanson wins, under the rules.

  • Angus TaylorAngus Taylor wins the election.19%

    What has to happen

    Angus Taylor wins, under the rules.

  • Jim ChalmersJim Chalmers wins the election.6%

    What has to happen

    Jim Chalmers wins, under the rules.

Show 2 more results
  • Robbie KatterRobbie Katter wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Robbie Katter wins, under the rules.

  • Larissa WatersLarissa Waters wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Larissa Waters wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Sep 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be…”
  • “Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.”
  • “If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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