Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?

88% say yes

Up 16 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 2, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 88¢ means about an 88% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.88%
What has to happen
Any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the date range specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title.
NoIt doesn’t happen.12%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 2, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 88%No 12%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles Yes as soon as any 1-minute candle’s high reaches the strike, even if the price moves back right away. Deadline: Window ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on…”
“The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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