Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

4% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 4¢ means about a 4% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.4%
What has to happen
Any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 2:00 PM and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title.
NoIt doesn’t happen.96%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 11:59 PM ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart

Yes 4%No 96%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles Yes as soon as any 1-minute candle’s high reaches the strike, even if the price moves back right away. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 2:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026…”
“The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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