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Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Jan 1, 12:00 AM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 40% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026”.

It fell 7 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
1m Candle High/Low Touch

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles Yes if any single 1-minute candle high or low touches the strike price, even if the price reverses right away. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 25
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
1m Candle High/Low TouchResolves the moment a single 1-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT prints a High/Low at or beyond the level, even a brief wick. Prices on other exchanges, pairs or indexes do not count, and it can settle before the end date. Rule text: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver